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Western Investors Set to Return to India, EMEs as Expert Predicts 'Multiple Recessions' in US, EU_我的网站

一 |     India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。    新加坡的钱币兑换商不只令吉热续，近来人民币也掀热潮。（新明日报图） （新加坡讯）新元兑令吉从上月1比3.45降至1比3.33，有人赶紧将新元兑成令吉，但有不少马来西亚游子观望中。牛车水珍珠一家钱币兑换商的合伙人黄素珍对《新明日报》说，尽管令吉增值，依旧有不少人兑换令吉。

二 | “其实反而越多人换，因为大家会担心下来跌更多。上个月还有1新元兑3.45令吉，这周就变1比3.33，我们不用说太多，顾客心里都有数。相比2019年8月的1比2.99兑换率，现在的兑换率还不错。”不过，她认为新元强劲，令吉兑换率应该不会跌到3以下，不过，要到中秋了，到时预计会有不少游子换令吉过节。来新工作的冯胜宽（24岁，文字工作者），平均每个月会兑换一次令吉。“虽然我觉得不会跌破3，但还是要再观察，趁兑换率还有3先换，反正都要用。我还打算进新山买月饼，所以下周会先兑换200新元。”雅吉拱廊的兑换商的前天新元兑令吉的兑换率，介于1比3.33至3.342。昨早银行间汇率是1比3.36，电子钱包则可换到3.35。

三 |     新元兑人民币突破1比5.4，创最高记录引兑换热，前天涨至1新元兑5.47人民币。莱佛士区内至少4家兑换商前午缺货，另有业者上半天就卖出40万人民币。数据显示，新元兑人民币的银行间汇率自7月11日突破1比5.4，之后虽偶有下跌至1比5.3，但基本上呈上升趋势，前天涨至1新元兑5.47人民币，创历史新高。记者前午走访莱佛士地铁站外的雅吉拱廊（The Arcade），发现至少四家钱币兑换商挂上人民币缺货的标注。据观察，雅吉拱廊有至少10家实体兑换商，各家新元换人民币的兑换率大致上介于1新元兑5.345至5.42人民币。一名不愿透露姓名的兑换商受访说：“上周就有新元兑人民币1比5.4的兑换率，不少顾客来换人民币，大几千元的换。这两天好几家缺货，我们只有一点存货，暂时标注没货。

四 | ”牛车水珍珠坊的钱币兑换商合伙人黄素珍也说，这两周生意增加了20%，昨天截至下午3时已卖出40万人民币。此外，她也分析了人民币持续疲弱的原因。“中国是生产国家，货币便宜，才能增加产出和竞争力，进而提高经济增长。然后就是最近新加坡经济增长率调高，而中国经济增长率又低于预期，加上美联储利率，这些都可能影响人民币的兑换率。

五 |

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